Analysts say PKR MPs aligned with Rafizi Ramli may hesitate to leave the party, fearing electoral risks and loss of machinery despite potential loyalty.
PETALING JAYA: Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli may command loyalty among a circle of allies in PKR, but analysts say not all are likely to risk their political futures by following him if he leaves the party ahead of the 16th General Election.
While the former PKR deputy president is believed to retain strong personal support within the party, observers note that abandoning PKR, which remains part of the federal governing coalition, would carry significant electoral risks for many elected representatives.
Analysts say considerations such as political survival and access to party machinery could weigh heavily on leaders aligned with Rafizi as they decide whether to remain or chart a new path with him.
Asia Group Advisors associate director Kamles Kumar said some PKR leaders may sympathise with Rafizi’s political outlook but would likely hesitate before leaving the party.
“Some MPs may share Rafizi’s political outlook but many will be cautious about leaving PKR.”
He said PKR continues to benefit from its position within the ruling coalition, providing candidates with established party infrastructure, grassroots networks and voter support built over years of engagement.
“For most MPs, the political risk of jumping to a new party remains significant, especially when their electoral survival depends heavily on party machinery.”
He said Malaysian political history shows that retaining parliamentary seats after leaving established parties is far from straightforward.
Kamles cited the experiences of several high-profile politicians who struggled to maintain their electoral strength after departing their original parties, including former ministers Datuk Seri Azmin Ali and Datuk Zuraida Kamaruddin.
“History suggests that it will not be easy. While Rafizi may have a strong personal base in Pandan, replicating that success across multiple constituencies would be far more challenging for his allies.”
Nevertheless, he acknowledged that some of Rafizi’s closest associates could still choose to follow him if a new political platform materialises.
Among those often mentioned are Setiawangsa MP Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad and Subang MP Wong Chen, who are widely seen as part of Rafizi’s inner political circle.
“Their chances of retaining their seats would depend heavily on the constituencies they contest in,” he said, adding that PKR’s popularity may no longer be as strong as it once was in certain areas.
However, Rafizi’s allies could ultimately rally behind him if a new party is established, said Universiti Malaya Politics and Administration Department political scientist Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub.
He said several figures closely associated with Rafizi, including Petaling Jaya MP Lee Chean Chung and Ampang MP Rodziah Ismail, may see a new party as a more viable political platform.
“I believe Rafizi’s political allies are likely to follow him, especially if a new party is formed and led by him.”
He said contesting elections without a party platform would place many of these leaders at a disadvantage in Malaysia’s electoral system.
“Without a party, it would be difficult for them to win because they do not necessarily possess the same level of public image, influence or support base as Rafizi.”
He also said remaining in PKR could present political obstacles for leaders perceived to be aligned with Rafizi.
“They may find it difficult to be selected as candidates in future elections because they are often labelled as ‘Rafizi’s people’ and seen as opposing the aspirations of the current leadership.”
Tawfik said Rafizi could be preparing a new political vehicle, not only for himself but also as a platform for allies and supporters within PKR.
“I am convinced that Rafizi is preparing a new political party that could serve as a platform or umbrella for political leaders aligned with him as well as his supporters.”
He added that Rafizi’s political momentum differs from that of other former party leaders who attempted similar moves in the past.
He pointed to Rafizi’s reputation as a vocal political figure who frequently highlights issues affecting ordinary Malaysians, particularly lower-income communities.
He also noted Rafizi’s role in exposing high-profile controversies, such as the National Feedlot Corporation scandal and his advocacy for economic reforms.
“With that background and narrative, it would not be surprising if Rafizi and his team manage to win seats even without contesting under the party banner they currently hold.”