KUALA LUMPUR, July 28 — Johor and Melaka are expected to record a reduction of between 20 to 40 per cent less rainfall when the country enters the Northeast Monsoon season at the end of this year due to the El Nino phenomenon, Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) director-general Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip said.
The East Coast of Sabah will potentially have less rain due to its location nearer to the Pacific Ocean, but states in the East Coast and north of the Peninsula are not expected to receive any drastic effects till the end of the year, based on six-month projections, he added.
“Currently, from the information we have an projections of rainfall from six months ahead, we don’t see significant effects in the East Coast till the end of the year,” he said as a guest on Bernama TV’s Ruang Bicara programme entitled El Nino: Is Malaysia Ready? tonight.
Mohd Hisham said the Northeast Monsoon typically begins in late October or early November and ends in late March, with the East Coast states usually receiving the highest rainfall in November and December.
He said the effects of El Niño are expected to become more pronounced towards the end of the Northeast Monsoon before reaching their peak in early 2027, with temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius potentially occurring from February to May, and possibly extending into June.
According to him, areas that typically experience high temperatures during very strong El Niño episodes include Perlis, Kedah, northern Perak, inland areas of Kelantan and parts of inland Pahang.
Meanwhile, Mohd Hisham said analysis of Malaysia’s temperatures since the 1980s showed an increase of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade due to global warming, while a strong El Niño could raise temperatures by up to 0.7 degrees Celsius above normal.
“If this El Niño reaches the very strong level that is expected, the country’s highest temperature could surpass the record of 40.1 degrees Celsius recorded on April 9, 1998, with a potential temperature surge occurring between March and May 2027,” he said.
He said reduced rainfall and rising temperatures could affect agricultural and livestock production, lower water levels in reservoirs and dams, and increase the risk of forest fires and transboundary haze.
To mitigate the impact of dry weather, he said the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) also provides technical advice to support cloud-seeding operations to increase water levels in catchment areas, although such operations can only be carried out when weather conditions are suitable.
“El Niño cannot be controlled because it is a natural phenomenon. What we at MetMalaysia can do is provide information on the conditions that are expected to occur,” he said, while also advising the public to use water wisely and avoid open burning to reduce risks during hot and dry weather. — Bernama
